People arrested in connection with the January 6 invasion of the U.S. Capitol are less likely than the overall population to be from rural counties, a Daily Yonder analysis finds.
The analysis also shows that arrestees are just as likely to come from a county that supported Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election as one that supported Donald Trump.
About 14% of the U.S. population lives in rural, or nonmetropolitan, counties. Only 10% of the people arrested for the Capitol riot list their homes in one of these rural counties. That means rural people are underrepresented on the list of arrestees versus their share of the population.
Our analysis did find that arrestees are a little more likely than the overall population to be from suburban counties. Twenty-eight percent of the U.S. population lives in the suburban counties of major metropolitan areas (metros with 1 million or more residents). Thirty percent of those arrested reside in such counties. About 5% of the population lives in the suburbs of medium-sized metros (population 250,000 to 999,999), while 8% of those arrested live in such counties.
We’ve been unable to determine a county of residence for 11 of the current 182 arrestees. That’s about 6% of the total number of people arrested.
We also compared the home counties of those on the arrestee list to the county-level vote in the 2020 presidential election. More than half of those arrested came from a county where Biden won the popular vote.
About 34% of the U.S. population lives in a county where Biden won by a landslide, defined as a 20-point or greater margin. About 30% of those arrested live in such a county. About 27% of the U.S. population lives in Biden competitive counties (where Biden won by under a 20 point margin). Just over 23% of the arrestees were from such counties.
People who have been arrested were slightly more likely than the overall population to live in a Trump landslide county. About 25% of the U.S. population (80 million residents) lives in a county where Trump won by 20 points or more. About 27% of those arrested live in such counties.
We were unable to determine the home county of 6% of those arrested in connection with the Capitol incursion.
Our analysis is based on 182 arrests announced through February 2, 2021. We’ll update this article if more arrests are announced.